Every month, for each category, we measure how the cost of making it changed over the last 3 months and put it next to the change in general prices over the same months.
The cost increase of the last 3 months for wood, textiles, foam and plastics, metals and steel, manufacturing labour costs and furniture import prices in Germany, all from Eurostat. Each category weights these by its cost structure. As our own shelf-price history builds up, the part already passed on to store prices is subtracted.
We do not forecast prices. We tested a forecasting indicator on past years against actual prices and it did not beat a simple rule, so this site shows measured changes only. Each month's figures are stored and never changed afterwards; a correction is dated and shown on the page. How we test →
We cannot say what one product will cost on a given day. Store promotions, stock and price list changes are not visible from outside. The cost weights are starting assumptions.
Method version: A-2026.10
A method change applies from the issue named; figures already published stay as they were. Corrections are dated. From the January 2027 issue, the weights of the cost components change only in the January, April, July and October issues; every change is listed here with the issue it starts in.
From the January 2027 issue (planned, decided on October 21, 2026): Measured labour share of domestic costs. For the part of costs produced in the country, the share of labour is measured from Eurostat business statistics (personnel costs of furniture and appliance makers against the goods they buy) instead of assumed. The split between the materials is still a starting assumption.
From the November 2026 issue (planned, decided on October 21, 2026): Measured import shares. The share of imports in each category's costs is measured for this country, from Eurostat trade and production statistics, instead of assumed. Imports carry a much larger part of the cost than before, and labour and materials a smaller one. The other weights are still starting assumptions.
From the November 2026 issue (planned, decided on October 20, 2026): Seasonally adjusted labour costs. The labour cost series is the seasonally adjusted one, so the quarterly up-and-down in the cost chart is gone.
From the November 2026 issue (planned, decided on October 20, 2026): Chained cost index. The cost index is chained month by month: each month's change is weighted with the fixed component weights. Before, components that had risen fast gained weight over the years by themselves.
From the October 2026 issue: Measured data only. Pages show the cost change of the last 3 months next to general prices, without forecast colours or numbers about the future. In our tests on past years, the coloured indicator did not beat a simple rule.
Corrected on October 21, 2026 (October 2026 issue): the general-prices figure now covers the same 3 months as the cost figure, to August 2026; it was shown for the 3 months to September 2026.
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