Every month, for each category, we measure how the cost of making it changed over the last 3 months and put it next to the change in general prices over the same months.
The cost increase of the last 3 months for lumber, textiles, foam and plastics, metals and steel, furniture factory wages and import prices (of household furniture, and of household appliances for major appliances), all from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each category weights these by its cost structure. The import share is measured from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis supply-use tables (for example, about three quarters of bedroom and dining furniture sold in the US is imported).
We do not forecast prices. We tested a forecasting indicator on past years against actual prices and it did not beat a simple rule, so this site shows measured changes only. Each month's figures are stored and never changed afterwards; a correction is dated and shown on the page. How we test →
We cannot say what one product will cost on a given day. Store promotions, stock and price list changes are not visible from outside. The cost weights are starting assumptions.
Method version: A-2026.10
A method change applies from the issue named; figures already published stay as they were. Corrections are dated. From the January 2027 issue, the weights of the cost components change only in the January, April, July and October issues; every change is listed here with the issue it starts in.
From the November 2026 issue (planned, decided on October 21, 2026): Measured import shares. The share of imports in each category's costs is measured, from the supply-use tables of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2017), instead of assumed: about 35% for sofas, 73% for bedroom and dining furniture and 49% for major appliances. Major appliances follow the import prices of household appliances instead of those of furniture. The other weights are still starting assumptions.
From the November 2026 issue (planned, decided on October 20, 2026): Chained cost index. The cost index is chained month by month: each month's change is weighted with the fixed component weights. Before, components that had risen fast gained weight over the years by themselves.
From the October 2026 issue: Measured data only. Pages show the cost change of the last 3 months next to general prices, without forecast colours or numbers about the future. In our tests on past years, the coloured indicator did not beat a simple rule.
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